Abstract: The influence of the uncertainty of the load, speed and time on the friction and wear of the copper-based nickel coating were studied, which can provide a reference for the surface wear and failure analysis of the crystal roll in the twin-roll thin strip continuous casting metallurgy process. The nickel-plated copper disk and 304 stainless steel were used to simulate the pin-to-disk experiment. 40 sets of experiments were designed using the response surface method and a polynomial regression equation was fitted according to the experimental data. Considering the uncertainties of many factors affecting coating wear, a random nonlinear evaluation method was established. A random model based on sampling was established using MATLAB software and stratified Latin hypercube sampling to clarify the interactive effect of load, speed and time on patterns of the coating .The results show that the wear amount of the coating increase with the increase of load, speed and time.Load is the most important factor, followed by speed, and the time has the least effect on the amount of wear.