基于KPCA-CS-SVM的埋地管道外腐蚀速率预测研究

    Research on Prediction of External Corrosion Rate of Buried Pipeline Based on KPCA-CS-SVM

    • 摘要: 针对埋地管道外腐蚀速率预测问题,首先对影响埋地管道外腐蚀速率的相关因素进行简单分析,在此基础上,对KPCA算法(核主成分分析算法)、CS算法(布谷鸟算法)以及SVM算法(支持向量机算法)进行原理介绍,阐述KPCA-CS-SVM算法的构建方法,使用KPCA-CS-SVM模型对实际管道的62组管道外腐蚀速率数据及腐蚀影响因素数据进行学习,对12组数据进行预测和验证,并与KPCA-PSO-SVM模型、KPCA-GA-SVM模型以及KPCA-LS-SVM模型进行对比,以此验证本次研究所提模型的先进性。结果表明:KPCA算法能有效的降低腐蚀速率预测影响因素的维度,通过使用KPCA算法对外腐蚀速率的影响因素进行分析可以发现,土壤的氧化还原电位、土壤电阻率以及土壤中的氧含量对于埋地管道外腐蚀速率的影响最大;使用KPCA-CS-SVM模型对管道外腐蚀速率预测的平均绝对误差仅有1.89%,决定系数为0.9993,模型训练时间仅为4.928 s,这3项数据均优于其它模型。研究证明,对于埋地管道外腐蚀速率预测而言,KPCA-CS-SVM模型是一种较为优越的算法,可得到推广和应用。

       

      Abstract: For the prediction of the external corrosion rate of buried pipelines, first of all, a simple analysis of the relevant factors that affect the external corrosion rate of buried pipelines, on this basis, the KPCA algorithm(core principal component analysis algorithm), CS algorithm(Cuckoo algorithm) and the SVM algorithm(support vector machine algorithm) were introduced, the construction method of the KPCA-CS-SVM algorithm was explained, and the KPCA-CS-SVM model was used to learn the external corrosion rate data and corrosion influencing factor data of 62 sets of pipelines of the actual pipeline.12 sets of data were predicted and verified, and compared with KPCA-PSO-SVM model, KPCA-GA-SVM model and KPCA-LS-SVM model, the advancedness of the model proposed were verified. The results show that the KPCA algorithm can effectively reduce the dimension of the influencing factors of corrosion rate prediction. By analyzing the influencing factors of the external corrosion rate using the KPCA algorithm, it can be found that the redox potential of the soil, the soil resistivity,and the oxygen content in the soil has the greatest impact on the external corrosion rate of the pipeline; the average absolute error of the prediction of the external corrosion rate of the pipeline using the KPCA-CS-SVM model is only 1.89%, the coefficient of determination is 0.9993, and the model training time is only 4.928 s. These three data are better than other models. The research proves that the KPCA-CS-SVM model is a superior algorithm for predicting the external corrosion rate of buried pipelines and can be popularized and applied.

       

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