基于ISSA-ELM模型的含腐蚀缺陷管道失效压力预测

    Prediction of Failure Pressure of Corroded Pipeline Based on ISSA-ELM Model

    • 摘要: 针对长输管道在服役期间因腐蚀缺陷发展而产生的管道失效问题,建立了基于优化极限学习机(ELM)的腐蚀管道失效压力预测模型。采用改进的麻雀搜索算法(ISSA)对ELM 模型初始参数进行寻优,通过引入基于Logistic模型的自适应因子对安全值进行动态控制,避免SSA 算法的早熟收敛;提出发现者-加入者自适应调整策略,增强算法后期的局部深度挖掘能力;改进发现者位置更新计算方法,提高算法的精度,有效避免了初始参数的随机性对模型预测精度和稳定性的影响。以61 组含腐蚀缺陷管道爆破实验数据为例,利用ISSA-ELM 模型进行仿真计算。结果表明:ISSA-ELM 模型预测结果平均绝对百分比误差为1.66%,决定系数为0.9967,均优于其对比模型的预测结果。使用ISSA-ELM 模型作为含腐蚀缺陷管道失效压力预测工具具有较高的预测精度和稳定性,能为管道检维修提供支持。

       

      Abstract: Aiming at the problem of pipeline failure caused by the development of corrosion defects during long distance pipelines in service, a prediction model of corrosion pipeline failure pressure based on an optimized extreme learning machine was established.The improved SSA was used to optimize the initial parameters of the ELM model, and the adaptive factor based on the Logistic model was introduced to dynamically control the safety value to avoid the premature convergence of the SSA algorithm; the finder-joiner adaptive adjustment strategy was proposed to enhance the local depth mining capability in the later stage of the algorithm; the update calculation method of the finder position was improved to improve the accuracy of the algorithm, and effectively avoid the influence of the randomness of the initial parameters on the prediction accuracy and stability of the model.Taking the blasting experimental data of 61 groups of pipelines with corrosion defects as an example, the ISSA-ELM model was used for simulation calculation.The results show that the average absolute percentage error of the prediction results of the ISSA-ELM model is 1.66%, and the coefficient of determination is 0.9967, which are better than the prediction results of the comparison model.Using ISSA-ELM model as a failure pressure prediction tool for pipelines with corrosion defects has high prediction accuracy and stability, which can provide technical support for pipeline inspection and maintenance.

       

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